Sat, Nov 1, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 114 | 07 | 118 | 239 |
| CBJ | 117 | 110 | 18 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37STLJustin FaulkAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 4:38CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Cole Sillinger, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:55CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Denton Mateychuk · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 5:07CBJSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 9:48STLNick BjugstadUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:44STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:44CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:08CBJDenton Mateychuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:05STLNick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:23STLMatthew Kessel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:42STLNathan Walker: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:05CBJIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Kyrou – Dvorsky7:00
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Walker – Toropchenko8:53
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Suter – Holloway8:35
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Snuggerud6:16
xG 0.12–0.92 (12%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg16:39
xG 0.80–0.59 (58%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Faulk – Fowler16:29
xG 0.88–0.95 (48%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- Tucker – Kessel7:17
xG 0.01–0.36 (3%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger7:30
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov10:43
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli9:47
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- Wood – Lundeström – Chinakhov6:14
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk15:39
xG 0.95–0.79 (55%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Werenski – Fabbro2:16
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Christiansen9:15
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).