Sun, Nov 2, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
New Jersey Devils 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 014 | 07 | 112 | 133 |
| ANA | 29 | 19 | 111 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:24ANAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 1:54ANACutter GauthierAssists: Jacob Trouba, Beckett Sennecke · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 7:43NJDJack HughesAssists: Dawson Mercer, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:06ANAChris KreiderENAssists: Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:10ANABeckett Sennecke: Holding2 min
- P1 14:48NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:34NJDDawson Mercer: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Bratt – Hughes12:14
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Palat – Lammikko – Gritsyuk6:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Cotter – Halonen4:47
xG 0.02–0.24 (7%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer10:21
xG 0.18–1.07 (14%)attempts 8–18goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hughes15:43
xG 0.90–0.66 (58%)attempts 23–19goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler14:39
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Cholowski – Nemec14:40
xG 0.22–0.72 (24%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson9:59
xG 0.72–0.23 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke10:54
xG 0.91–0.43 (68%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Poehling – Nesterenko10:47
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Johnston – Vatrano – Harkins8:12
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Mintyukov12:37
xG 1.11–0.43 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Helleson – LaCombe15:07
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Helleson – Zellweger2:59
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).