Mon, Nov 3, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Seattle Kraken 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 014 | 16 | 130 |
| SEA | 010 | 25 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:57SEAJamie OleksiakUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 7:36SEAMatty BeniersPPGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 11:33CHIAndre BurakovskyAssists: Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 16:05SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:15SEAKaapo Kakko: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:28CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:15SEAMatty Beniers: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:32SEAJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:59CHIRyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Mikheyev – Moore8:37
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard11:24
xG 0.85–0.60 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar8:49
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Levshunov6:21
xG 0.82–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Rinzel4:16
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Murphy – Vlasic2:24
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Marchment – Winterton – Wright2:49
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Marchment – Nyman – Wright8:01
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kartye – Winterton – Catton3:40
xG 0.18–0.38 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – Tolvanen – Beniers10:44
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Mahura9:50
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Montour – Lindgren15:08
xG 0.52–0.70 (42%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn18:15
xG 0.47–1.71 (22%)attempts 10–30goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).