Tue, Nov 4, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Boston Bruins 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 28 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 427 |
| NYI | 03 | 218 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:11NYIAnthony DuclairAssists: Casey Cizikas, Kyle MacLean · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 12:21BOSViktor ArvidssonAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 13:06NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal, Emil Heineman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:29BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:05NYIBo HorvatAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 15:06BOSMarat KhusnutdinovAssists: Fraser Minten, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Simon Holmstrom stopped
- 2. BOS Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 3. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 4. BOS Marat Khusnutdinov scored
- 5. NYI Jonathan Drouin stopped
Penalties (11)
- P2 1:10BOSNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:17NYIMathew Barzal: Holding2 min
- P2 9:18BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:18BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:18BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 9:18NYIAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:18NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:45NYIAnders Lee: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:43NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:56NYIMatthew Schaefer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:16BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Ritchie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt11:47
xG 0.70–0.44 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten8:36
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Geekie – Kastelic2:22
xG 0.04–0.03 (63%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten2:14
xG 0.24–0.28 (47%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy11:44
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Peeke15:17
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Aspirot9:58
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Heineman10:56
xG 0.47–0.30 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom10:52
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Duclair – MacLean6:16
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Drouin – Ritchie9:46
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:29
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer14:31
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov11:47
xG 0.36–0.96 (27%)attempts 9–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).