Tue, Nov 4, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 114 | 19 | 01 | 234 |
| MIN | 19 | 14 | 08 | 14 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:16NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Michael McCarron, Tyson Jost · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 16:01MINZeev BuiumPPAssists: Brock Faber, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:59NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Nick Blankenburg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 3:38MINMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Other, 1.00 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:04NSHJustin Barron: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:09NSHMichael Bunting: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:46MINDavid Jiricek: Holding2 min
- P2 14:08NSHSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:50MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista10:13
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Svechkov – Wood2:11
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Haula – Marchessault7:45
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bunting – Svechkov – Wood5:08
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Perbix15:09
xG 0.84–0.50 (63%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Hague – Blankenburg14:00
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Stastney – Barron11:53
xG 0.41–0.66 (39%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:47
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kaprizov – Rossi11:01
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Trenin – Jones4:45
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Hartman11:41
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton15:05
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Jiricek – Buium10:16
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Brodin – Faber16:41
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).