Wed, Nov 5, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 011 | 022 | 143 |
| CGY | 213 | 27 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Matt Coronato · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 1:32CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Joel Hanley, Samuel Honzek · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 6:57CBJKirill MarchenkoSHAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 7:47CGYNazem KadriAssists: Joel Farabee, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 8:24CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Yan Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 19:11CGYMikael BacklundENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:04CBJAdam Fantilli: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:57CGYKevin Bahl: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:36CBJDmitri Voronkov: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:11CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11CBJIvan Provorov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAston-Reese – Lundeström – Johnson8:59
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov10:24
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:15
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Jenner – Wood – Fantilli10:20
xG 0.64–0.62 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro15:41
xG 0.90–0.73 (55%)attempts 19–20goals 0–2
- Severson – Provorov15:09
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Mayo – Christiansen6:21
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Honzek9:31
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato8:50
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Sharangovich – Klapka7:46
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary10:48
xG 0.34–0.54 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Pachal – Kuznetsov11:54
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Andersson – Bahl14:53
xG 0.46–0.73 (39%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
- Weegar – Hanley15:38
xG 0.64–0.91 (41%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).