Thu, Nov 6, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 12 | 08 | 110 | 02 | 222 |
| BOS | 09 | 29 | 03 | 14 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 1:22BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Andrew Peeke · Poke, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 16:03BOSSean KuralyAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 11:52OTTClaude GirouxAssists: David Perron, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 4:54BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Poke, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:03BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:03OTTKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:13OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:41BOSMark Kastelic: Interference2 min
- P3 9:09OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P3 9:51BOSPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:18OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:21BOSMorgan Geekie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto7:43
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Perron – Greig – Stützle3:05
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Cozens3:09
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Perron – Cozens – Greig3:02
xG 0.01–0.01 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanderson – Zub13:49
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo10:56
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kleven – Zub4:10
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Geekie – Khusnutdinov9:51
xG 0.57–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten8:18
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Beecher3:44
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Kastelic2:47
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Peeke13:52
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Aspirot12:57
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy15:53
xG 0.52–0.51 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).