Fri, Nov 7, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Minnesota Wild 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 213 | 16 | 526 |
| NYI | 010 | 211 | 06 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24MINVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Jonas Brodin, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:32MINDanila YurovAssists: Yakov Trenin, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 4:38NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 5:56MINBrock FaberGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 9:05MINMarco RossiAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Daemon Hunt · Snap, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 18:51NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Anders Lee, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 8:33MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:01MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:15MINYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:12NYIAdam Pelech: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Hinostroza – Hartman11:55
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Yurov10:03
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi13:17
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:09
xG 0.37–0.71 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Buium15:02
xG 1.31–0.59 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber15:56
xG 0.94–0.59 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 2–2
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:57
xG 0.26–0.59 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Heineman12:22
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom11:53
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
- Palmieri – Duclair – Drouin3:04
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Duclair – MacLean7:14
xG 0.29–0.55 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:07
xG 0.96–0.23 (81%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Pelech – Schaefer2:02
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pulock2:17
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).