Fri, Nov 7, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 07 | 310 | 427 |
| CGY | 011 | 011 | 011 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32CHITyler BertuzziPPGWGAssists: Connor Bedard, Artyom Levshunov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 1:11CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Connor Bedard, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 7:56CHIAndre BurakovskyAssists: Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 18:01CHIConnor BedardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:22CGYRasmus Andersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:19CHIColton Dach: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:19CGYJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:46CHITeuvo Teravainen: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:12CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:12CHIAlex Vlasic: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:19CGYJoel Hanley: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:19CHINick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:19CGYJoel Hanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:49CHILouis Crevier: Holding2 min
- P3 13:19CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:58CHINick Foligno: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Nazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Bertuzzi – Bedard6:46
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard2:10
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Dach – Moore2:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Bedard – Moore2:17
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Grzelcyk2:52
xG 0.45–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Rinzel5:24
xG 0.55–0.13 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Crevier – Kaiser2:19
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Honzek8:06
xG 0.45–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato11:28
xG 0.81–0.55 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich5:44
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Lomberg – Zary – Klapka3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kuznetsov3:29
xG 0.43–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hanley – Andersson2:57
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Andersson – Pachal2:40
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).