Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 111 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 134 |
| NJD | 16 | 09 | 08 | 01 | 2 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:12NJDArseny GritsyukUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 12:33PITRyan GravesAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NJD Paul Cotter scored
- 2. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:41NJDBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:41PITAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:49PITErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:45NJDStefan Noesen: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Dewar – Lizotte8:27
xG 0.86–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Koppanen – Koivunen6:15
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Kindel11:13
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Novak10:19
xG 0.04–0.61 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon18:07
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Clifton – Graves13:30
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Letang – Shea14:41
xG 0.56–1.00 (36%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Glass – Gritsyuk10:50
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Noesen – Bratt – Hughes9:59
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Lammikko – Cotter8:07
xG 0.09–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Meier – Hughes – Mercer2:19
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hughes17:35
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- White – Nemec2:06
xG 0.05–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cholowski – Hughes2:31
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).