Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 5, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 19 | 36 | 522 |
| NSH | 14 | 27 | 110 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Ilya Lyubushkin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:46NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Spencer Stastney, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:13DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:43NSHNicolas HagueAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 5:10NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 2:20DALJustin HryckowianAssists: Oskar Bäck, Mavrik Bourque · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 5:11NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Matthew Wood · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 9:33DALAdam ErneAssists: Colin Blackwell, Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 10:20DALSam SteelGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:07NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:34NSHLuke Evangelista: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:32NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P2 1:00DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:00NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:24DALLian Bichsel: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:48DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:23DALColin Blackwell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBäck – Bourque – Hryckowian6:37
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston12:36
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Faksa – Erne6:23
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson6:39
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Bichsel9:18
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen10:17
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Lindell – Harley2:45
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista11:48
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- McCarron – Jost – Wiesblatt5:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Haula – Marchessault3:45
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bunting – Svechkov – Wood2:14
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Barron9:34
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Skjei – Perbix11:03
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Hague – Blankenburg14:30
xG 0.19–0.69 (21%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).