Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 213 | 214 | 112 | 539 |
| TOR | 26 | 112 | 015 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12TORNick RobertsonPPAssists: Max Domi, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:30BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 3:50BOSViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 13:03TORMatias MaccelliAssists: Nicolas Roy, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 2:15BOSMichael EyssimontPPAssists: Marat Khusnutdinov, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–2
- P2 4:41BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
- P2 16:51TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 16:58BOSFraser MintenAssists: Mark Kastelic · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:22BOSHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:59BOSMichael Eyssimont: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:27TORBobby McMann: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:37BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:37TORBobby McMann: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:05BOSTanner Jeannot: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:44TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:44BOSMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Geekie – Khusnutdinov11:32
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Steeves10:40
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Viel8:37
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten9:05
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Peeke15:15
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Aspirot – Lohrei12:02
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Jokiharju15:36
xG 0.74–1.12 (40%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Knies10:12
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli8:18
xG 0.45–0.39 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Laughton – Domi – Lorentz4:03
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Tavares – Robertson – McMann8:32
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly2:55
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit2:00
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe10:30
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).