Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Utah Mammoth 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 14 | 115 | 08 | 227 |
| MTL | 15 | 27 | 311 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Ian Cole, Kevin Stenlund · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 14:45MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Ivan Demidov, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:02UTALawson CrouseAssists: Michael Carcone, Jack McBain · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 6:44MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 13:13MTLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Oliver Kapanen · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 13:29MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 18:00MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 19:23MTLKirby DachUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:23UTAJack McBain: Interference2 min
- P2 0:36MTLZachary Bolduc: Interference2 min
- P2 7:59MTLAlex Newhook: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:36UTAIan Cole: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Carcone – McBain10:49
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Hayton – Peterka – Guenther12:16
xG 0.79–0.68 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley11:37
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Stenlund – Tanev – Yamamoto6:32
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schmidt2:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Marino12:26
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Maatta7:27
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:29
xG 1.09–0.43 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov8:43
xG 0.89–0.66 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Dach – Bolduc11:16
xG 0.30–0.52 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Veleno9:56
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson14:59
xG 1.02–0.52 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 3–1
- Carrier – Xhekaj11:18
xG 0.55–0.10 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Struble – Hutson16:01
xG 0.49–1.41 (26%)attempts 10–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).