Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 5, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 112 | 25 | 526 |
| NYR | 08 | 07 | 018 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Emil Heineman, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:27NYIJonathan DrouinAssists: Anthony Duclair, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:42NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 17:59NYIJean-Gabriel PageauENAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–0
- P3 19:30NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.11 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:51NYIEmil Heineman: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:16NYITony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:54NYRConor Sheary: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:44NYRNoah Laba: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Horvat – Heineman9:01
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair10:43
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Ritchie – Tsyplakov6:29
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Drouin – Barzal – Holmstrom11:44
xG 0.37–0.59 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech2:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo7:33
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Romanov11:19
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Sheary – Panarin5:19
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Raddysh – Laba4:07
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Raddysh7:30
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Miller – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:53
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox16:38
xG 1.16–0.65 (64%)attempts 24–19goals 0–2
- Soucy – Borgen14:43
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider10:30
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).