Sun, Nov 9, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 16 | 35 | 520 |
| DET | 110 | 014 | 022 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Artyom Levshunov, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:19DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:22CHITeuvo TeravainenPPGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 5:09CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Artyom Levshunov · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 16:37CHIAndre BurakovskyENAssists: Connor Bedard, Louis Crevier · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–1
- P3 19:44CHIOliver MooreAssists: Ryan Donato, Matt Grzelcyk · Slap, 0.21 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:26DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:46CHIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P1 19:11CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:51DETTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:24CHITyler Bertuzzi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:24CHITyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:54DETSimon Edvinsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:37CHILouis Crevier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Mikheyev – Moore2:31
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Lafferty – Dach8:15
xG 0.02–0.03 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Mikheyev – Greene8:30
xG 0.01–0.63 (1%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Bertuzzi – Bedard10:48
xG 0.25–0.90 (22%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Grzelcyk6:18
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Levshunov2:15
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kaiser – Rinzel2:53
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond4:11
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie7:08
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – Finnie4:04
xG 0.31–0.04 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat7:06
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson17:26
xG 1.16–0.24 (83%)attempts 27–10goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka15:46
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Johansson10:03
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).