Sun, Nov 9, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 07 | 214 | 12 | 532 |
| VAN | 116 | 110 | 27 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:10COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 11:47VANLinus KarlssonAssists: Filip Hronek, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 1:44VANKiefer SherwoodUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 0:28COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Brent Burns, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 7:26VANDrew O'ConnorSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 9:47COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 16:59VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:08COLGavin BrindleyGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Poke, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:14VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:32COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:47COLCale Makar: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:08COLValeri Nichushkin: Holding2 min
- P2 16:03COLVictor Olofsson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:45VANEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:10VANTom Willander: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:43COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Räty won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Colton6:24
xG 0.64–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas6:44
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Nelson – Olofsson – Colton3:42
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury3:55
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:48
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Burns – Manson12:29
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Ahcan – Malinski9:01
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- DeBrusk – O'Connor – Räty8:23
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- O'Connor – Bains – Sasson2:02
xG 0.01–0.06 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Boeser – Sherwood – Reichel7:19
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Bains – Sasson5:29
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Willander4:16
xG 0.57–0.26 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hronek – Pettersson2:34
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander4:40
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).