Mon, Nov 10, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 324 |
| NJD | 111 | 010 | 114 | 00 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 6:55NYIBo HorvatAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 17:07NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Bo Horvat · Poke, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:55NJDSimon NemecAssists: Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:17NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.30 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:38NYIAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:52NYIKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:10NYICalum Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:16NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:59NJDPaul Cotter: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Barzal – Holmstrom10:41
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Heineman10:38
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Ritchie – Tsyplakov7:11
xG 0.03–0.45 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair8:35
xG 0.13–0.55 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo8:02
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer3:33
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:47
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – MacEwen – Cotter6:57
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer11:18
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Noesen – Bratt – Hughes6:35
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Glass – Gritsyuk7:07
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hughes14:42
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- White – Cholowski11:50
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec18:37
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).