Mon, Nov 10, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Nashville Predators 3, New York Rangers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 04 | 216 | 330 |
| NYR | 28 | 34 | 16 | 618 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 16:16NSHMatthew WoodPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 18:07NYRVladislav GavrikovAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 1:23NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: Gabe Perreault, Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 7:51NYRArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Urho Vaakanainen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 19:50NYRWill CuylleAssists: Noah Laba, Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 12:48NSHMatthew WoodPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 13:30NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 19:15NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:48NYRBraden Schneider: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:46NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:40NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:59NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:11NYRWill Borgen: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:33NYRVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista11:33
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Bunting – Svechkov – Wood6:08
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Wood2:20
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- McCarron – Jost – Wiesblatt7:16
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Perbix18:21
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Stastney – Wilsby13:28
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hague – Blankenburg14:48
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Perreault11:16
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:28
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 3–1
- Carrick – Sheary – Edstrom7:34
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Cuylle – Laba10:41
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox15:55
xG 0.85–0.60 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 3–1
- Soucy – Borgen15:13
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider17:19
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).