Mon, Nov 10, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 210 | 16 | 01 | 422 |
| EDM | 17 | 06 | 39 | 12 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Damon Severson, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:28EDMJake WalmanAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 1:39CBJSean MonahanAssists: Kent Johnson, Boone Jenner · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 18:02CBJBoone JennerAssists: Dante Fabbro, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 0:58EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 4:19CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 13:39EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 19:02EDMJake WalmanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 0:56EDMJack RoslovicGWGAssists: Jake Walman · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:03CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:03EDMTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:26EDMCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:26CBJJake Christiansen: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:39EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:06CBJDmitri Voronkov: Holding2 min
- P3 2:40CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:40EDMConnor McDavid: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:42EDMJack Roslovic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli12:16
xG 1.17–0.34 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Coyle – Olivier – Chinakhov8:34
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Del Bel Belluz6:30
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Jenner – Monahan – Johnson10:32
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFabbro – Christiansen9:49
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Severson – Mateychuk14:00
xG 0.85–0.87 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Werenski – Provorov18:08
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin8:41
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Mangiapane – McDavid – Savoie8:52
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Janmark – Lazar – Philp3:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Frederic – Podkolzin2:37
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nurse – Walman15:09
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard11:52
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson12:54
xG 0.19–1.28 (13%)attempts 5–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).