Mon, Nov 10, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Florida Panthers 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 19 | 11 | 320 |
| VGK | 013 | 07 | 212 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:47FLAJesper BoqvistAssists: Donovan Sebrango, Jeff Petry · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 10:54FLABrad MarchandAssists: Gustav Forsling, Donovan Sebrango · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 1:25VGKTomas HertlAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 4:54FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 9:04VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Brayden McNabb, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:16FLADonovan Sebrango: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:16VGKJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:41VGKCole Reinhardt: Interference2 min
- P2 5:33FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 6:23FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P2 14:59VGKZach Whitecloud: Holding2 min
- P2 19:02FLANiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:02VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:26FLAJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P3 4:09VGKAlexander Holtz: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich9:13
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell10:48
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Greer – Kunin – Schwindt6:09
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues10:25
xG 0.28–0.98 (22%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola14:32
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Petry – Sebrango11:09
xG 0.21–0.75 (22%)attempts 6–20goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:51
xG 0.34–0.95 (26%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Marner11:39
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev10:56
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Kolesar – Howden5:58
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Howden – Holtz2:56
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore12:19
xG 1.28–0.65 (66%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Korczak14:09
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Theodore – Lauzon3:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).