Tue, Nov 11, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 115 | 112 | 333 |
| BOS | 311 | 111 | 110 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:41TORSteven LorentzSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:32BOSHampus LindholmPPAssists: Mason Lohrei, Michael Eyssimont · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 17:23BOSAlex SteevesAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 0:49BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Morgan Geekie, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 18:58TORBobby McMannPPAssists: Max Domi, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 3:32TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Nick Robertson, William Nylander · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 9:48BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Mark Kastelic, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:13TORPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:09TORJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:58TORSimon Benoit: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:26BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:26TORDakota Joshua: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:04BOSViktor Arvidsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:47BOSJeffrey Viel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:59BOSMark Kastelic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:07BOSMarat Khusnutdinov: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:07TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:07TORBobby McMann: Interference2 min
- P3 8:01TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:14TORSammy Blais: Kneeing2 min
- P3 14:51BOSMark Kastelic: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Khusnutdinov won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Blais – Lorentz4:43
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann5:00
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli4:08
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – Robertson2:01
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo9:12
xG 0.88–0.10 (90%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Myers3:45
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly4:22
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Eyssimont – Viel6:29
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Khusnutdinov9:17
xG 0.51–0.64 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten7:00
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Steeves6:57
xG 0.35–0.76 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy11:28
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Lohrei9:30
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Peeke11:56
xG 0.29–1.01 (22%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).