Thu, Nov 13, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 7, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 48 | 26 | 719 |
| MTL | 014 | 03 | 07 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21DALWyatt JohnstonPPGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 3:50DALEsa LindellAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 7:10DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jason Robertson, Lian Bichsel · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 15:10DALJason RobertsonAssists: Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 16:49DALJason RobertsonAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Mavrik Bourque · Snap, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 2:01DALAlexander PetrovicAssists: Radek Faksa, Colin Blackwell · Snap, 0.08 xG6–0
- P3 14:40DALColin BlackwellAssists: Radek Faksa, Ilya Lyubushkin · Bat, 0.13 xG7–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:32DALLian Bichsel: Interference2 min
- P1 13:04MTLKirby Dach: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:10DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:06MTLZachary Bolduc: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:13DALNathan Bastian: Holding2 min
- P3 6:55DALIlya Lyubushkin: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:55MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:41MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:41MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:41DALNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLKirby Dach: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hryckowian won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Robertson – Johnston2:22
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson7:06
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston6:04
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian9:38
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Bichsel13:25
xG 0.88–0.66 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 4–0
- Petrovic – Harley2:50
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen13:14
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:43
xG 1.06–0.26 (80%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Kapanen2:05
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov3:54
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Veleno5:28
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Xhekaj13:04
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Matheson – Dobson15:02
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Struble – Hutson11:23
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).