Thu, Nov 13, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 3, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 117 | 010 | 213 | 340 |
| FLA | 17 | 212 | 39 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:25WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:53FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Niko Mikkola, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:05FLACole SchwindtAssists: Gustav Forsling, Eetu Luostarinen · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:41FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 0:52WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Tom Wilson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 4:54FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 9:47FLASeth JonesPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 12:40WSHRasmus SandinAssists: John Carlson · Snap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 18:30FLAEetu LuostarinenENAssists: Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:33FLASeth Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 0:41WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:55WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:21WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:35WSHNic Dowd: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:35WSHNic Dowd: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:37FLADonovan Sebrango: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sourdif won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif6:23
xG 0.62–0.01 (98%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Sourdif – Lapierre – Leonard3:27
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Beauvillier – Leonard3:35
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier9:08
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSandin – Chisholm8:39
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Carlson – Sandin4:55
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Fehérváry – Chisholm3:48
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues10:11
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Bennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich10:58
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell12:12
xG 0.74–1.04 (42%)attempts 14–20goals 0–2
- Greer – Kunin – Schwindt8:50
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola15:09
xG 1.14–0.95 (54%)attempts 14–24goals 2–1
- Ekblad – Forsling15:00
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Petry – Sebrango12:31
xG 0.56–0.81 (41%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).