Thu, Nov 13, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Islanders 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 26 | 010 | 15 | 13 | 424 |
| VGK | 010 | 18 | 28 | 03 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:03NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Bo Horvat, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:59NYIMatthew SchaeferPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 18:56VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 8:23VGKTomas HertlAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 10:45VGKReilly SmithAssists: Brandon Saad, Brett Howden · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 17:23NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:02NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.00 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:48NYISimon Holmstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 17:19VGKCole Reinhardt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:51VGKNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:25NYICalum Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:56VGKJeremy Lauzon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:48NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P2 15:01VGKMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:14VGKJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:45NYICalum Ritchie: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- OT 2:54NYICalum Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Ritchie – Tsyplakov3:32
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Drouin – Barzal – Holmstrom10:12
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair5:51
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Heineman10:08
xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo8:18
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock5:10
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pelech – Romanov2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Marner10:26
xG 0.26–0.00 (98%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Bowman8:40
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt5:13
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Saad – Howden6:27
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore11:44
xG 0.79–0.04 (95%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Theodore – Hanifin2:47
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Whitecloud4:39
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).