Thu, Nov 13, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Winnipeg Jets 3, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 14 | 213 | 09 | 326 |
| SEA | 18 | 15 | 35 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Adam Lowry, Dylan DeMelo · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:15SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 3:18WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 7:27SEAVince DunnAssists: Ryan Winterton, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 18:50WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 4:11SEAEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 7:21SEAJordan EberleGWGAssists: Matty Beniers, Mason Marchment · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:25SEAJordan EberleENAssists: Matty Beniers, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:55WPGConnor Hellebuyck: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:41WPGGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:13SEAVince Dunn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46SEAMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:27WPGNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:29SEAJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo9:53
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Namestnikov – Perfetti11:22
xG 0.13–0.28 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Pearson – Ford5:05
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:22
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Samberg – Pionk16:00
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:19
xG 0.52–0.58 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 1–3
- Miller – Stanley11:31
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKartye – Wright – Catton2:21
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Marchment – Beniers13:04
xG 0.28–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Kakko3:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Tolvanen – Wright – Catton2:57
xG 0.01–0.01 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans13:04
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Montour – Lindgren13:26
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:31
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).