Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 07 | 23 | 320 |
| FLA | 06 | 17 | 010 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:19TBLEmil LillebergAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 11:31FLABrad MarchandPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 4:09TBLJack FinleyGWGAssists: Curtis Douglas, Scott Sabourin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:09TBLZemgus GirgensonsENAssists: Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.78 xG3–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:55FLASam Bennett: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:33TBLYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:33FLALuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:26TBLZemgus Girgensons: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 13:10TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:09FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:36FLAGustav Forsling: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:09TBLErik Cernak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:09TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:09FLAEetu Luostarinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:09FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:09TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:50FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSabourin – Douglas – Finley6:54
xG 0.86–0.18 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point7:38
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Goncalves5:15
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Pelletier2:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Lilleberg10:26
xG 1.00–0.17 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Raddysh – Moser11:02
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Cernak – D'Astous10:18
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich9:04
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Greer – Kunin – Schwindt6:16
xG 0.03–0.32 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues7:58
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell7:14
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jones – Mikkola12:18
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Petry – Sebrango9:23
xG 0.00–0.23 (1%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling11:11
xG 0.33–0.75 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).