Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 07 | 05 | 05 | 2 | 331 |
| WSH | 08 | 010 | 211 | 02 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05NJDArseny GritsyukPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Paul Cotter · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:46NJDLuke HughesAssists: Brenden Dillon, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 1:00WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 8:29WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Connor McMichael, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Dylan Strome scored
- 2. NJD Paul Cotter stopped
- 3. WSH Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 4. NJD Jesper Bratt scored
- 5. WSH Connor McMichael stopped
- 6. NJD Arseny Gritsyuk stopped
- 7. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 8. NJD Simon Nemec scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:23WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:15WSHNic Dowd: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:02WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:12NJDDawson Mercer: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Noesen – Lammikko7:29
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier12:53
xG 1.01–0.72 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Glendening – Légaré – Lachance4:14
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Cotter – Gritsyuk – Mercer12:56
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Cholowski11:49
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec16:05
xG 0.37–0.61 (38%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hughes16:49
xG 0.75–1.27 (37%)attempts 22–20goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif11:26
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael10:38
xG 0.77–0.25 (76%)attempts 21–8goals 2–1
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime2:13
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank7:29
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun18:52
xG 1.22–0.81 (60%)attempts 30–13goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry7:10
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Sandin5:56
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).