Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 06 | 18 | 11 | 423 |
| CAR | 111 | 116 | 19 | 00 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47EDMJack RoslovicUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 6:30EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Jack Roslovic, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 15:39CAREric RobinsonAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 1:41CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 5:46EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 6:45CARJordan StaalUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 0:19EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:47CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:58EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid5:47
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin9:49
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Janmark – Lazar – Philp3:37
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Hyman – McDavid – Savoie11:58
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:25
xG 1.08–0.67 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Kulak – Regula11:31
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Nurse – Walman20:28
xG 0.88–1.13 (44%)attempts 22–32goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis14:48
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson5:34
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake11:11
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier12:52
xG 0.71–1.29 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker18:11
xG 1.22–0.73 (63%)attempts 22–24goals 2–0
- Reilly – Nikishin13:36
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Walker – Miller2:05
xG 0.01–0.09 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).