Sat, Nov 15, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 114 | 15 | 014 | 233 |
| CHI | 110 | 011 | 211 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05CHIRyan GreeneAssists: Artyom Levshunov, Wyatt Kaiser · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:12TORNick RobertsonAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 9:37TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 5:12CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 15:35CHIColton DachGWGAssists: Louis Crevier, Ilya Mikheyev · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:53CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:37CHISam Lafferty: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 14:27TOREaston Cowan: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:44CHIConnor Bedard: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:18TOREaston Cowan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Knies – Cowan10:40
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Joshua – Lorentz6:10
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson12:06
xG 0.70–0.61 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 2–2
- Domi – Maccelli – McMann5:56
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly12:10
xG 1.07–0.24 (82%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit15:10
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Mermis6:44
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Nazar – Moore8:36
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Donato – Mikheyev – Dach6:39
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Foligno – Lafferty – Slaggert4:59
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard10:50
xG 0.27–0.88 (24%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Crevier11:18
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Murphy – Vlasic3:07
xG 0.05–0.00 (99%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Crevier – Kaiser2:06
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).