Sat, Nov 15, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 03 | 011 | 17 | 121 |
| DAL | 110 | 26 | 212 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48DALLian BichselAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Justin Hryckowian · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 11:39DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 17:02DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 9:29DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
- P3 10:57PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Owen Tippett, Jamie Drysdale · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 13:51DALTyler SeguinAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:47PHIBobby Brink: Interference2 min
- P2 17:20DALColin Blackwell: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:33PHITyson Foerster: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Bourque
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov6:46
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Konecny – Cates – Foerster5:16
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Couturier – Brink – Michkov4:09
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster7:28
xG 0.10–0.27 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale13:29
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 1–3
- Sanheim – York17:47
xG 0.55–0.90 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Andrae19:10
xG 0.12–1.37 (8%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBäck – Bourque – Hryckowian11:14
xG 0.98–0.04 (97%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson11:03
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 3–1
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston12:51
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bastian9:29
xG 0.01–0.12 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen18:50
xG 1.71–0.62 (73%)attempts 21–8goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Bichsel15:21
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Lyubushkin11:12
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).