Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
San Jose Sharks 1, Seattle Kraken 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 014 | 05 | 126 |
| SEA | 16 | 210 | 17 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:14SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jamie Oleksiak · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 19:42SJSAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, William Eklund · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 16:05SEAAdam LarssonGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 16:43SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jamie Oleksiak · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:31SEAJaden SchwartzENAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:10SEARyan Lindgren: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:52SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:00SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:17SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:07SEATye Kartye: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:29SJSVincent Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:23SEAJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P3 14:42SEAFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dellandrea won the faceoff against Catton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Gaudette – Dellandrea10:05
xG 0.60–0.23 (73%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Kurashev – Smith – Celebrini10:35
xG 0.86–0.65 (57%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Wennberg – Eklund – Graf10:31
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk7:31
xG 0.02–0.32 (6%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Mukhamadullin15:36
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg11:22
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Leddy – Desharnais10:17
xG 0.18–0.27 (41%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen3:29
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Eberle – Marchment – Beniers12:13
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Tolvanen – Wright – Catton4:27
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Winterton3:26
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Montour – Lindgren12:58
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Montour2:14
xG 0.05–0.02 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Evans11:39
xG 0.52–0.57 (47%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).