Sun, Nov 16, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 01 | 16 | 511 | 618 |
| TBL | 113 | 16 | 011 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Darren Raddysh, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:35TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 9:26VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 4:11VANKiefer SherwoodPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 4:54VANLinus KarlssonGWGAssists: Mackenzie MacEachern · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 5:51VANDrew O'ConnorAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 13:52VANMackenzie MacEachernAssists: Filip Hronek, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 16:57VANMarcus PetterssonENAssists: Elias Pettersson, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.27 xG6–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:42TBLDarren Raddysh: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:42VANConor Garland: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:53TBLScott Sabourin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:06TBLJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:13VANQuinn Hughes: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:44VANElias Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:43TBLScott Sabourin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 19:30TBLScott Sabourin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:30VANMackenzie MacEachern: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:30VANMackenzie MacEachern: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:30TBLScott Sabourin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:30TBLCurtis Douglas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:30VANLinus Karlsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00VANAatu Räty: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sasson won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – O'Connor2:45
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Pettersson – Karlsson2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Karlsson – Reichel7:23
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- DeBrusk – O'Connor – Räty6:13
xG 0.02–0.25 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pettersson – Willander10:03
xG 0.04–0.21 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson15:18
xG 0.21–0.86 (19%)attempts 4–15goals 1–1
- Hughes – Willander2:17
xG 0.00–0.75 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Katchouk – Hagel7:43
xG 1.42–0.12 (92%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Sabourin – Douglas – Finley7:26
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Bjorkstrand10:13
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves10:20
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – D'Astous14:13
xG 1.52–0.30 (84%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Raddysh – Moser15:01
xG 1.08–0.06 (95%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Crozier – Lilleberg12:29
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).