Sun, Nov 16, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 08 | 19 | 00 | 225 |
| MIN | 112 | 16 | 07 | 13 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:14VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:05MINYakov TreninAssists: Danila Yurov, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 6:35VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:50MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:39MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:46VGKBraeden Bowman: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:40VGKZach Whitecloud: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:12VGKKaedan Korczak: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27MINMatt Boldy: Broken stick2 min
- P3 5:02MINJared Spurgeon: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 4:31VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev9:33
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt7:46
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman10:17
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Saad – Howden8:54
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud16:40
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Hutton – Korczak6:50
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore18:05
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov8:33
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov3:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:07
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Yurov7:06
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber17:57
xG 0.63–0.05 (92%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Hunt – Buium9:29
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:11
xG 0.41–0.60 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).