Sun, Nov 16, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 2, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 119 | 114 | 242 |
| NYR | 06 | 110 | 03 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:30DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 11:59NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Will Cuylle, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 16:13DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:41DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P2 4:04NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:54NYRNoah Laba: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:12DETMoritz Seider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:54NYRSam Carrick: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:39NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:38NYRNoah Laba: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRJonathan Quick: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00DETMason Appleton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00NYRJonathan Quick: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Copp – Rasmussen8:07
xG 0.42–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond10:53
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Appleton – Kasper – Danielson7:29
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – Finnie12:19
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson15:51
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka11:13
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Johansson6:43
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:22
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Sheary – Laba6:53
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle7:49
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Carrick – Raddysh – Edstrom8:19
xG 0.00–0.53 (1%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Morrow7:46
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Fox16:51
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Soucy – Schneider13:44
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).