Mon, Nov 17, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 213 | 19 | 332 |
| BOS | 09 | 07 | 114 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:25CARJordan StaalAssists: Joel Nystrom, William Carrier · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 13:34CARMark JankowskiGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P3 17:27CARTaylor HallAssists: Joel Nystrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 19:50BOSRiley TuftePPAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:09CARK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:25BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 18:13CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:23CARShayne Gostisbehere: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:23BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 10:54BOSFraser Minten: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:39CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:08CARAlexander Nikishin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis9:57
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson9:42
xG 0.66–0.20 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:39
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake8:39
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Nystrom13:14
xG 0.85–0.15 (85%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker13:22
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Reilly – Nikishin14:42
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Jeannot – Minten4:32
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten7:47
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Tufte – Eyssimont8:47
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Zacha – Blümel – Steeves8:30
xG 0.09–0.34 (20%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Lohrei4:33
xG 0.29–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Aspirot3:23
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Jokiharju11:17
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).