Mon, Nov 17, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 19 | 29 | 06 | 1 | 332 |
| CBJ | 110 | 26 | 07 | 00 | 2 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:47MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 9:47CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 13:32CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 8:28MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Lane Hutson, Jake Evans · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:41MTLLane HutsonAssists: Noah Dobson, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 3. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 4. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
- 5. MTL Ivan Demidov stopped
Penalties (2)
- P2 10:26MTLJared Davidson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:05MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Roy9:22
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–2goals 1–1
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov12:22
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Davidson8:01
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans2:29
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson13:20
xG 0.94–0.26 (78%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson3:44
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson4:23
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger12:50
xG 0.52–0.37 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Wood – Aston-Reese – Lundeström9:54
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:10
xG 0.33–0.70 (32%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Monahan – Chinakhov – Johnson11:31
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFabbro – Christiansen9:27
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Severson – Mateychuk14:56
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Werenski – Provorov21:28
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 20–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).