Tue, Nov 18, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 014 | 113 | 05 | 132 |
| TBL | 27 | 110 | 212 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40TBLJake GuentzelUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:38TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 10:38TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 17:47NJDNico HischierAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Jesper Bratt · Deflected, 0.75 xG1–3
- P3 4:49TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Brayden Point, J.J. Moser · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 7:48TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:34TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P1 13:15TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:43NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:18NJDLuke Hughes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:48NJDArseny Gritsyuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:09TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:04TBLGage Goncalves: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 19:16NJDSimon Nemec: Interference2 min
- P3 19:16TBLCurtis Douglas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Hagel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Hischier – Gritsyuk10:30
xG 1.71–0.27 (86%)attempts 22–6goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Glendening – Cotter4:37
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Noesen – Lammikko4:53
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Meier – Mercer8:57
xG 0.15–0.77 (16%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCholowski – Hughes2:18
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hughes – Nemec3:45
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hughes12:24
xG 0.68–0.59 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Point – Goncalves5:59
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point3:30
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Douglas – Finley3:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – James5:38
xG 0.02–0.03 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSantini – Carlile8:51
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg13:41
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Moser13:30
xG 0.67–1.34 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).