Tue, Nov 18, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 15 | 27 | 322 |
| DAL | 010 | 15 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:31NYICalum RitchieAssists: Anthony Duclair, Ryan Pulock · Slap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 12:26DALJason RobertsonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 3:12NYIBo HorvatAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Emil Heineman · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 7:38NYIKyle PalmieriSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:01DALJason RobertsonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P3 6:48NYIBo Horvat: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:48NYIBo Horvat: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:52DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:08NYIMatthew Schaefer: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:29DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:32DALMikko Rantanen: Boarding5 min
- P3 19:32DALMikko Rantanen: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Drouin2:00
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Heineman11:53
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Ritchie – Tsyplakov6:30
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Shabanov4:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock2:09
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer13:25
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo10:31
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Hintz – Robertson11:33
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Rantanen – Johnston3:59
xG 0.28–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston7:46
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Blackwell – Faksa4:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Kolyachonok2:38
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Capobianco – Kolyachonok4:12
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Capobianco – Heiskanen3:39
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).