Tue, Nov 18, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 04 | 17 | 222 |
| WPG | 111 | 28 | 211 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35WPGAdam LowryAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:27CBJMiles WoodAssists: Damon Severson, Elvis Merzlikins · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:12WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 15:30WPGNeal PionkPPGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 2:45WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 4:04CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Cole Sillinger, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 6:23WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Luke Schenn · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:37CBJIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:50CBJLuca Del Bel Belluz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:47WPGMorgan Barron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:05
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger14:10
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
- Wood – Monahan – Johnson12:53
xG 0.64–0.79 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Del Bel Belluz8:45
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov20:13
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 12–18goals 1–2
- Severson – Mateychuk16:48
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Fabbro – Christiansen11:16
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Namestnikov – Perfetti13:35
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo9:32
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Pearson – Barron9:18
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:14
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Stanley14:54
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Samberg – Pionk16:01
xG 1.14–0.84 (57%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey19:44
xG 0.32–0.67 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).