Tue, Nov 18, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 17 | 110 | 221 |
| CHI | 15 | 19 | 39 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:05CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Louis Crevier, Oliver Moore · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 15:11CHIConnor BedardAssists: Sam Rinzel · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 19:32CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 3:02CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Mikael Backlund, Adam Klapka · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:57CHIConnor BedardGWGAssists: Ryan Greene, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 13:04CHIOliver MooreAssists: Frank Nazar · Poke, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 19:19CHIConnor BedardENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–5
Penalties (21)
- P1 10:42CHIConnor Bedard: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:45CGYYegor Sharangovich: Interference2 min
- P1 15:05CGYMatt Coronato: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:41CGYJake Bean: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:17CGYKevin Bahl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:23CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50CHIWyatt Kaiser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:48CHIIlya Mikheyev: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:48CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:46CHIColton Dach: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CHISam Rinzel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CHISam Lafferty: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CGYJake Bean: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CGYAdam Klapka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CGYSam Morton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CGYBrayden Pachal: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CGYRyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CHIColton Dach: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CHIMatt Grzelcyk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CHILandon Slaggert: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Klapka – Morton7:59
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Coronato6:11
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary10:29
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato4:35
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Kuznetsov13:59
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Andersson – Bahl14:37
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Bean – Pachal11:56
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Nazar – Moore8:43
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard11:20
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Lafferty – Slaggert – Dach2:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Donato – Mikheyev – Dach8:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (97%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Rinzel3:25
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:20
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Levshunov4:43
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).