Tue, Nov 18, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Rangers 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 16 | 18 | 219 |
| VGK | 18 | 17 | 111 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40VGKBraeden BowmanPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:23VGKBen HuttonAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:56NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Will Cuylle · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 7:18VGKShea TheodorePPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 17:17NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Artemi Panarin, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:14NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:36VGKKaedan Korczak: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:35NYRCarson Soucy: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Sheary – Laba5:41
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:23
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle8:00
xG 0.14–0.10 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Miller – Brodzinski7:04
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Borgen13:55
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Fox19:41
xG 0.65–0.48 (57%)attempts 27–13goals 0–1
- Robertson – Schneider12:21
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Saad – Howden10:53
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt7:54
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman13:45
xG 0.17–0.47 (26%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev11:57
xG 0.18–0.56 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak14:33
xG 0.57–0.05 (92%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore18:20
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud17:04
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).