Wed, Nov 19, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 116 | 213 | 02 | 0 | 345 |
| MIN | 211 | 05 | 13 | 00 | 1 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54MINBrock FaberAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Danila Yurov · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:46MINMatt BoldySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 14:03CARJackson BlakeAssists: Sean Walker, Logan Stankoven · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 0:15MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Danila Yurov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:34CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 18:54CARJackson BlakeAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 6. CAR Taylor Hall stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:49MINZeev Buium: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:53MINMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:58CARMike Reilly: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Yurov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Stankoven – Blake12:40
xG 0.91–0.12 (89%)attempts 23–3goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier11:40
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 24–4goals 0–1
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson10:51
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:37
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker16:19
xG 1.02–0.55 (65%)attempts 27–6goals 1–1
- Miller – Nystrom16:22
xG 0.72–0.33 (68%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Reilly – Nikishin11:49
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:28
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Jones – Ohgren8:39
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Trenin9:25
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov12:27
xG 0.34–0.77 (30%)attempts 7–22goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:46
xG 0.57–0.83 (41%)attempts 8–27goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber19:17
xG 0.56–0.89 (39%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
- Hunt – Buium13:30
xG 0.17–1.06 (14%)attempts 6–29goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).