Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 210 | 012 | 14 | 330 |
| TOR | 012 | 18 | 18 | 01 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:17CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 12:01CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 14:12TORDakota MermisAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 3:33TORJohn TavaresAssists: Easton Cowan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:21CBJAdam FantilliGWGAssists: Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:12CBJCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:31TORMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:28CBJMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:43TORMatias Maccelli: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWood – Monahan – Johnson8:43
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:40
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:06
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Lundeström – Chinakhov – Del Bel Belluz7:14
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov19:18
xG 0.98–0.45 (69%)attempts 24–24goals 2–1
- Fabbro – Christiansen9:10
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov2:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Cowan7:59
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Laughton – Lorentz – Cowan5:48
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Joshua – Maccelli – Quillan5:23
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann9:51
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – McCabe2:52
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Mermis – Stecher11:15
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly15:38
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).