Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 8, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 415 | 315 | 836 |
| MTL | 112 | 27 | 19 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:47MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Ivan Demidov · Snap, 0.93 xG1–1
- P2 2:00WSHEthen FrankPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 3:38WSHEthen FrankAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 7:53MTLJoseph VelenoAssists: Mike Matheson, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 14:26WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: John Carlson · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 15:04MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Zachary Bolduc · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 17:25WSHSonny MilanoGWGAssists: Ethen Frank, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.19 xG5–3
- P3 5:37MTLMike MathesonAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 16:03WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.10 xG6–4
- P3 17:56WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: John Carlson · Snap, 0.28 xG7–4
- P3 18:34WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Ethen Frank, Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.06 xG8–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:58MTLJuraj Slafkovský: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:27MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:03WSHJustin Sourdif: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28WSHJakob Chychrun: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:58MTLJoshua Roy: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:11WSHEthen Frank: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:47MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:47WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00MTLMike Matheson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:25MTLJosh Anderson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:25WSHRyan Leonard: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif11:38
xG 1.01–0.52 (66%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Frank4:29
xG 0.41–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier8:34
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Duhaime – McMichael – Leonard7:38
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcIlrath – Chychrun2:26
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Chychrun5:09
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin7:03
xG 0.35–0.13 (74%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov6:49
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Veleno – Davidson8:28
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Anderson – Evans – Roy5:36
xG 0.02–0.08 (21%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Roy – Kapanen2:04
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson16:59
xG 0.62–0.54 (53%)attempts 17–17goals 1–2
- Carrier – Xhekaj10:08
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Struble – Hutson10:05
xG 0.62–0.82 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).