Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 5, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 213 | 15 | 526 |
| DET | 05 | 015 | 09 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46NYICalum RitchieGWGAssists: Maxim Shabanov, Adam Boqvist · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:54NYIMaxim ShabanovAssists: Casey Cizikas, Calum Ritchie · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:19NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 5:04NYIBo HorvatAssists: Ryan Pulock, Emil Heineman · Slap, 0.12 xG4–0
- P3 6:52NYIMaxim ShabanovAssists: Casey Cizikas · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:35DETJ.T. Compher: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:27DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:57NYIEmil Heineman: Interference2 min
- P1 18:57DETMoritz Seider: Embellishment2 min
- P2 12:27DETBen Chiarot: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:31DETMarco Kasper: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:04NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:04NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P3 9:04DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:04DETBen Chiarot: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:04NYIScott Mayfield: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:21NYITony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:21DETMarco Kasper: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Horvat – Heineman8:30
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Ritchie – Shabanov9:27
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Drouin – Barzal – Holmstrom10:51
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair11:07
xG 0.42–0.88 (32%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Boqvist2:27
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer11:55
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 3–0
- Pulock – Boqvist2:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAppleton – Rasmussen – Danielson4:33
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond6:49
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Copp – Rasmussen2:16
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Kane – Compher – Kasper3:22
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Johansson11:07
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 0–2
- Seider – Edvinsson16:25
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka10:17
xG 0.24–0.55 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).