Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
New York Rangers 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 14 | 19 | 319 |
| COL | 110 | 114 | 411 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:33COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:58NYRAdam EdstromAssists: Sam Carrick, Braden Schneider · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 17:15COLCale MakarAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 2:36COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Sam Malinski, Scott Wedgewood · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 10:18NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 10:48COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 18:35COLCale MakarENAssists: Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–5
- P3 19:47COLRoss ColtonENAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:19COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:09NYRVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P1 14:02NYRSam Carrick: Interference2 min
- P2 9:56NYRConor Sheary: Holding2 min
- P3 0:51NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:50NYRCarson Soucy: Holding2 min
- P3 9:27COLJack Drury: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:06NYRJonny Brodzinski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Carrick – Raddysh – Edstrom5:07
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Brodzinski – Sheary – Laba9:06
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:08
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Panarin11:56
xG 0.16–0.64 (21%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Schneider14:48
xG 0.37–0.73 (34%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Robertson – Morrow10:10
xG 0.23–0.66 (26%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Fox12:59
xG 0.04–0.58 (6%)attempts 4–15goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:46
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Colton4:07
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nelson – Colton – Brindley2:00
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas2:08
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:48
xG 1.38–0.11 (93%)attempts 26–13goals 2–0
- Burns – Manson10:34
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Burns – Toews2:23
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).