Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Utah Mammoth 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 317 | 19 | 433 |
| UTA | 09 | 19 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:09VGKJack EichelAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 3:28VGKBen HuttonGWGAssists: Cole Reinhardt · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 6:38UTANate SchmidtAssists: Ian Cole, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:51VGKJack EichelAssists: Braeden Bowman, Shea Theodore · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 0:45VGKBraeden BowmanAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:26UTABrandon Tanev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:00UTALogan Cooley: Holding2 min
- P2 1:00VGKBrett Howden: Embellishment2 min
- P2 6:16UTALogan Cooley: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:16UTAMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:16VGKCole Reinhardt: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:16VGKKaedan Korczak: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:16UTALogan Cooley: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:27VGKBraeden Bowman: Interference2 min
- P3 1:59VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:59UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:11VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P3 17:44UTAMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt8:54
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman10:28
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev10:58
xG 0.46–0.65 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Smith – Saad – Howden10:09
xG 0.43–0.75 (36%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore16:04
xG 0.99–0.75 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 3–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud15:23
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Hutton – Korczak14:23
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – Guenther – Cooley13:51
xG 1.25–0.46 (73%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:07
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Crouse – McBain – Peterka7:58
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev7:01
xG 0.08–0.41 (17%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Sergachev2:24
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Cole – DeSimone11:51
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Schmidt – DeSimone2:54
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).