Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 06 | 210 | 424 |
| VAN | 210 | 015 | 011 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Justin Hryckowian · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 3:06VANLinus KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 7:44DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 14:25VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Kiefer Sherwood · Bat, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 10:47DALColin BlackwellGWGAssists: Radek Faksa, Oskar Bäck · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:29DALMikko RantanenAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:54DALSam Steel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55VANLinus Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:31DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:10DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:50DALMavrik Bourque: Interference2 min
- P3 1:29DALLian Bichsel: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:47VANDrew O'Connor: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBäck – Bourque – Hryckowian5:59
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Benn – Rantanen – Johnston7:17
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston2:43
xG 0.01–0.02 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Steel4:21
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Kolyachonok6:24
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen15:22
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Lindell2:24
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – O'Connor – Räty6:22
xG 0.24–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Garland – Pettersson3:25
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Boeser – Garland – Kampf6:57
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Garland – Kampf2:09
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson11:03
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Hronek – Hughes14:23
xG 0.75–0.64 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander5:59
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).