Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 110 | 15 | 325 |
| ANA | 03 | 212 | 010 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:39OTTNick CousinsAssists: Nick Jensen, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 13:08ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 14:34ANAMason McTavishAssists: Chris Kreider, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:02OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Stephen Halliday, David Perron · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 18:02OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson, Jordan Spence · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:45OTTJake Sanderson: Holding2 min
- P1 12:47ANABeckett Sennecke: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02OTTNick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:55ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:08ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto8:32
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Stützle9:09
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Cozens7:17
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Sanderson2:05
xG 0.52–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:09
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Jensen – Matinpalo10:37
xG 0.77–0.44 (63%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson3:35
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Carlsson – Sennecke7:31
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Killorn – Strome – Vatrano9:56
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Kreider – Terry – McTavish7:11
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Helleson4:36
xG 0.14–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Helleson – LaCombe9:24
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- LaCombe – Moore4:50
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).