Fri, Nov 21, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 17 | 110 | 323 |
| BUF | 315 | 39 | 37 | 931 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:57BUFJosh DoanAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:19BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 17:33BUFBowen ByramPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Ryan McLeod · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 18:12CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Sam Rinzel, Connor Bedard · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 5:42BUFRyan McLeodGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 5:50BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Isak Rosen, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
- P2 14:45CHIAlex VlasicAssists: Ryan Greene, Sam Rinzel · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
- P2 17:31BUFJosh DoanAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.12 xG2–6
- P3 0:24CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 1:56BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–7
- P3 7:07BUFJack QuinnAssists: Bowen Byram, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–8
- P3 16:22BUFJacob BrysonAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–9
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:09CHIConnor Bedard: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:09BUFJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:40CHIArtyom Levshunov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:05BUFJosh Doan: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Slaggert – Greene2:03
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Slaggert – Dach2:58
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Donato – Lafferty – Slaggert2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Donato – Dach – Moore2:37
xG 0.07–0.08 (45%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Crevier5:35
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Murphy – Grzelcyk4:55
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Levshunov6:59
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Doan11:22
xG 1.10–0.25 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 3–1
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn12:02
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Krebs10:32
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Rosen – Kozak – Ostlund9:30
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin19:05
xG 1.05–0.26 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 3–0
- Bryson – Power11:57
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Timmins – Power2:05
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).